The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has called for a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, warning that the world must cut emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 to have a strong chance of limiting global warming to 1.7C above preindustrial levels.
In a report published on October 21, 2026, UNEP stated that the internationally agreed goal of limiting warming to 1.5C is no longer achievable without an overshoot.
However, the agency noted that reducing the extent and duration of that overshoot remains possible if governments implement substantial cuts in emissions.
Current Policies Point to 2.8C Warming
The report found that global carbon emissions in 2025 were broadly similar to levels recorded in 2024.
UNEP analysts cautioned against interpreting this as a definitive peak or plateau because of geopolitical uncertainty and continued dependence on fossil fuels, despite rapid growth in renewable energy.
According to UNEP projections, current government policies would result in global temperatures rising by 2.8C above preindustrial levels.
Even if countries fulfill their updated climate pledges, warming would reach approximately 2.6C, increasing risks to human populations and ecosystems across large parts of the world.
Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, said governments had received warnings for years that stronger action was necessary to preserve the 1.5C target.
"[We used to say] there's still an opportunity if we make this herculean effort [to stay within the 1.5C limit]," Andersen said.
She said governments had failed to deliver the scale of action previously considered necessary, leaving the world facing a narrower path toward limiting long-term warming.
"It's now clear the herculean effort was not made. We procrastinated, and now we are saying this window has closed."
Andersen nevertheless urged countries to retain the 1.5C goal, which remains central to the Paris climate agreement, and to minimize the period during which temperatures exceed that threshold.
"We can make the overshoot as brief and as short as possible. It's not time to throw in the towel and give up.
This is about how to find our way back, as shortly and quickly as possible."
The report highlighted political obstacles to stronger action, particularly in major fossil fuel-producing countries.
The United States, the world's second-largest emitter after China, has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement under Donald Trump and is threatening to reverse its longstanding decline in greenhouse gas emissions.
Bill Hare, chief executive of the Climate Analytics thinktank, called on governments to confront the scientific evidence and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
"All governments have a job to do, but in particular it is time for major fossil fuel producers such as the US and Saudi Arabia, which produce 20-25% of fossil fuels globally, to stop playing politics and face the scientific reality.
Right now they are looking at the fire, denying it exists and pouring more petrol on it, while their own citizens increasingly face searing heat, wildfires and other impacts," Hare said.
UNEP's analysis also found that countries' latest climate commitments remained insufficient.
Governments were expected to submit stronger emissions targets under the Paris agreement at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November 2025, but the resulting pledges fell short of the reductions needed to limit warming.
Mohamed Adow, director of the thinktank Power Shift Africa, said renewable energy technologies were advancing faster than political efforts to reduce fossil fuel use.
"The tragedy is that we have the solutions within our grasp.
Solar and wind power are growing far faster than anyone expected, yet governments are still failing to move away from fossil fuels quickly enough.
The technology is racing ahead while political leadership is dragging its feet," Adow said.
UNEP said every five years of greenhouse gas emissions at current levels increases projected global warming by 0.1C.
Scientists also warn that exceeding the 1.5C threshold by a greater margin raises the risk of triggering climate system tipping points.
Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said the gap between national commitments and required emissions reductions demanded political action.
"If all current national commitments are implemented, global emissions are projected to reach approximately 50 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually by 2035, when they should be below 35 gigatonnes.
The science is already clear. Closing that gap is a question of political action, not a lack of scientific evidence," Rockström said.
UNEP identified methane reductions as one way to curb warming more quickly, noting that methane is 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas.
Meanwhile, the next global stocktake under the Paris agreement is scheduled for 2028, although uncertainty over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's next assessment has raised concerns about whether governments will have the latest scientific findings in time.
