Democrat Amy Acton has moved ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio's gubernatorial contest, with several surveys placing her in front as the November 2026 election approaches.
The race to succeed term-limited Republican Gov.
Mike DeWine has grown increasingly competitive, opening the possibility that Democrats could retake an office Republicans have held for most of the past three and a half decades.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten reported on October 19 that Ramaswamy's net rating among independent voters had dropped to minus 25, the lowest figure he identified for an Ohio Republican gubernatorial nominee since 2000.
Acton, a physician and former director of the Ohio Department of Health, has also built a consistent polling edge over the biotechnology entrepreneur and former presidential candidate.
Polling averages show a steady Acton advantage
According to RealClearPolling, Acton led by 3.5 percentage points, with 48.2 percent to Ramaswamy's 44.7 percent.
Decision Desk HQ placed her advantage at approximately four points, while The New York Times' polling tracker showed an average lead of about five points across four qualifying surveys as of October 15.
Bowling Green State University's survey with YouGov, conducted September 29 through October 9 among 1,000 likely voters, gave Acton a 50 percent to 44 percent advantage.
A CNN/SSRS poll of 760 likely voters conducted September 29 through October 5 found her leading 50 percent to 42 percent, including a 27-point advantage among independents.
The New York Times/Siena College survey put Acton ahead 49 percent to 45 percent.
Suffolk University recorded a nine-point Democratic advantage, while Marist found Acton leading by six points among registered voters.
However, a co/efficient poll conducted October 5 and 6 showed Ramaswamy ahead 45 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
Enten described the shift from the previous year as a major reversal in the contest.
"has flipped from Ramaswamy over to Amy Acton, who's now up by 4 points in the polls." Enten said on CNN.
The analyst emphasized the scale of the Republican candidate's unfavorable standing among independent voters.
"No one has ever been this low if you're a GOP gubernatorial nominee in Ohio. No one has been this low except for Vivek Ramaswamy," Enten said.
He characterized the result as a historic low for the state's Republican gubernatorial candidates.
"The worst this century!" Enten said.
Ramaswamy entered the race with President Donald Trump's endorsement, announced on February 24, 2025.
Trump carried Ohio in his three presidential campaigns by margins ranging from eight to 11 points, strengthening Republican expectations that the party could retain the governorship.
TIME reported that Trump's endorsement effectively discouraged several prominent Republicans, including state Attorney General Dave Yost, state Treasurer Robert Sprague, and Lieutenant Governor Jim Tressel, from challenging Ramaswamy for the nomination.
Ramaswamy ultimately secured the Republican nomination, although businessman Casey Putsch received nearly one-fifth of the primary vote despite Trump's backing of his opponent.
Ramaswamy has promoted tax reductions, economic development, and a long-term plan to eliminate Ohio's state income tax.
His platform also proposes reducing local property taxes to levels that preceded the COVID-19 pandemic.
Acton has emphasized property tax relief for middle-income, older, and disabled homeowners, alongside free school meals.
Acton has also called for a conditional pause on new data center development unless companies pay their own utility costs, avoid nondisclosure agreements with local officials, and use union labor to construct and operate facilities.
The proposal places her in opposition to Ramaswamy's support for expanding data center development.
Political scientist David Cohen, director of the Applied Politics Program at the University of Akron, questioned the Republican choice of nominee and the campaign's approach.
"He was the worst possible choice for Republicans, not that they really had a choice." Cohen said.
Ramaswamy and his supporters have spent approximately $101 million on advertising targeting Acton, including $36 million contributed personally by Ramaswamy, according to TIME's October 19 report.
Separate reporting by Signal Ohio placed his personal contribution at $36.3 million.
Acton and her supporting groups have spent substantially less, with her campaign raising approximately $16 million in contributions through September.
Democratic advertising has portrayed Ramaswamy as a wealthy businessman disconnected from ordinary Ohioans, while Republican attacks have focused on Acton's record overseeing public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The campaigns' increasingly aggressive advertisements have made personal credibility and government intervention central themes of the contest.
Ramaswamy's campaign has defended its criticism of Acton's public health record.
His spokesperson Evan Machan told The Cincinnati Enquirer in August:
"Families across Ohio were kept from dying loved ones because of Amy Acton's COVID lockdown policies." Machan said.
Acton directed Ohio's health department during the pandemic, when the state implemented school closures and stay-at-home orders under DeWine's administration.
She has never held elected office, a fact that supporters and critics have used to distinguish her professional background from Ramaswamy's business career.
Diane Cunningham Redden, chairwoman of the Hamilton County Republican Party, said she preferred a candidate with private-sector management experience.
"I'm going to go to the guy who's had to make a budget and make payroll, and not somebody that came out of public health," Redden said.
Redden also cited Ramaswamy's early investments in research into rare diseases as a reason for supporting him.
"It's a very American idea," Redden said, "to take a chance and see if you can make a difference."
She questioned the representativeness of polling because she and her acquaintances had not been contacted by survey researchers.
"There's polls coming out all the time about [Senate candidates] John Husted versus Sherrod Brown, and about Vivek [Ramaswamy] versus Amy Acton," Redden said.
Her comments reflected broader Republican concerns that polling may not accurately capture the electorate's preferences.
"Nobody's ever called me.
Nobody's ever called any of my friends … I don't know how you even get on this poll list."
Redden said.
University of Cincinnati political science professor David Niven said the campaign reflects growing Democratic enthusiasm and Republican concerns about defending traditionally safe territory.
"One of the things that we're seeing, state after state after state, is an unusually high amount of enthusiasm for Democrats, and a concern among Republicans that they need to try and defend places that would normally be very safe," Niven said.
He added that Republican spending in states such as Kansas reflected a wider effort to protect territory previously considered secure.
"If you're watching the headlines, they're spending money in Kansas right now. You know, that's a really bad sign for Republicans," Niven said.
Niven compared the political environment in 2026 with the conditions preceding the 2006 midterm elections, when Democrats benefited from dissatisfaction with the Republican administration.
He said economic pressures, tariffs, and the war with Iran could weigh particularly heavily on Ohio voters.
"I think [the tariffs and war with Iran] hurt Ohio more than most," Niven said.
He argued that Republicans face difficulties campaigning on their record while voters express dissatisfaction with policies implemented under their leadership.
"So normally, you run on your accomplishments or you run on promises for the future," Niven said.
He connected that challenge to the political reversal Democrats achieved two decades earlier.
"That's what happened to Republicans in 2006," Niven said, "[And] what seems to be happening to Republicans in 2026."
Republicans nevertheless point to polling errors in previous elections as a reason not to assume Acton's advantage will translate into victory.
The Northerner reported that statistician Nate Silver's analysis found polls had underestimated Republican support in each of the previous three presidential elections, while 2024 gubernatorial surveys had leaned approximately two points toward Democrats.
Redden said she remained unconvinced that the polling accurately represented voter sentiment.
"Calm down," a consultant who has worked with Ohio candidates in past election cycles said, cautioning against Democratic optimism.
The consultant added: "It's still Ohio."
Political analyst Christopher Devine, a political science professor at the University of Dayton, identified Ramaswamy's background as another factor that could affect his support among some Republican voters.
"There are a lot of members of the Republican base who may have difficulty voting someone of his demographic profile."
Devine said.
Ramaswamy, who is Indian American and Hindu, has built a national political profile through his association with Trump and conservative positions on immigration and government.
At an October 12 rally in Youngstown, he defended his view of merit and equal treatment.
"As Americans, we believe in merit, that the best person gets the job, regardless of their skin color, that you are judged not on the color of your skin, but on the content of your character and your contributions," Ramaswamy said.
He concluded the remarks by describing those principles as central to American identity.
"That is who we are as Americans." Ramaswamy said.
The election has also exposed divisions over property taxes, immigration, and the future of large data center projects.
With both candidates campaigning as political outsiders who have not previously held elected office, the contest presents Ohio voters with contrasting approaches to economic policy and the role of state government.
