A European Union member state intelligence report reviewed by Reuters warns that Russia faces an explosive banking crisis, as lenders bear the heavy burden of funding the country's wartime economy.
The two-page document, titled "Nota over de waarschijnlijkheid van een bankencrisis in Rusland in 2026," noted that state-backed credit programs, loan restructurings, and government aid are currently masking severe vulnerabilities within the financial system.
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The report highlighted that 10 percent of corporate loans are doubtful, a sharp increase from 2024, while some major banks reported retail non-performing loan rates of up to 15 percent for 2025.
It further detailed that lending to defense companies, regional projects, and homebuyers has heightened the risk of unrecoverable defaults, with over 500,000 Russians filing for bankruptcy in 2025.
Official Denials and Expert Views
Filipp Gabunia, deputy governor of the Russian central bank, countered the assessment, stating that vulnerabilities in the financial sector are not critical and that capital buffers remain at their highest levels in three years.
He added that the bad corporate loan rate has held steady at 4 percent over the past 18 months, though the central bank declined to comment on the leaked report.
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Chris Weafer, a Russia expert at Macro Advisory, said the Russian economy is stagnating but that high defense spending keeps unemployment low and wages high, buffering the domestic system.
Weafer noted that Asia ignores sanctions, suggesting that the idea of a new round plunging Russia into crisis is wishful thinking.
Taras Skvortsov, CFO of Sberbank, stated that all major banks are already under sanctions and that by 2026, everyone has grown accustomed to them, with many clients unaware of the restrictions.
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The EU is preparing a 21st sanctions package for July 2026 targeting nearly 90 additional banks and cryptocurrency networks to further isolate Russian financial systems.
