"Strategy's Bitcoin buying has been a balancing force in the market where leading U. S.
Bitcoin miners have been net sellers as they accelerate their pivot to AI data centers," the analysts wrote.
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Long-Term Optimism Despite Correction
Despite steep corrections over the past eight months, Bernstein remains highly confident about the long-term structural health of the cryptocurrency market.
"Bottom line, any crypto correction is painful, but this one has been rather comforting," analysts wrote.
The firm pointed out that institutional framework developments differentiate this cycle from previous industry downturns. "Crypto feels like it's growing up.
We remain optimistic on Bitcoin long-term," they added.
To reach the projected end-of-year valuation, Bitcoin would need to rally approximately 135% from its current trading range near $63,836.
"We reckon, our 2026 year-end $150K BTC price target appears ambitious in context of the market correction," analysts said.
Bernstein is monitoring regulatory developments, such as the Clarity Act, which currently holds a 50% chance of passage by year-end according to Polymarket.
"However, we expect [the] Bitcoin cycle will eventually turn and we continue to watch the BTC flows to see any signs of life," they added.
Speculation regarding forced sales by Strategy to fund its recent $216 million dividend obligation was dismissed by the firm, noting the company retains over $2.55 billion in cash reserves.
"Strategy continues to maintain USD reserve coverage of ~17 months for dividend and interest expenses, with any reduction below 12 months requiring board authorization," said Bernstein.
Strategy currently holds more than 843,700 tokens, representing approximately 4% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply.
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"Thus, it looks unlikely any major Bitcoin forced supply could come from Strategy and it continues to be a net buyer in the market," it added.
