ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, emphasized that a gradual cooling is acceptable, but a steep decline would serve as a warning sign for the economy.
"I think as long as the job gains continue to show a gradual cooling, this economy is in good shape," Richardson said.
ADP estimated that private employers added 150,000 jobs last month, down from 157,000 in May.
"If we see the cooldown go from gradual to steep, I think that’s a warning," she said.
Stability and Federal Reserve Considerations
Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab’s head of economic research, wrote that the current level of job openings is consistent with a healthy and balanced market.
"The words ‘little changed’ were repeated no fewer than a half dozen times in the May JOLTS release, and virtually every key indicator tracked showed limited notable movement, either up or down," Bunker wrote.
"This short-run stability is a good thing.
But the question remains if this period of calm can continue or if more unsteady times are on the horizon," he wrote.
"This current level of job openings is consistent with a healthy, sustainable and balanced market, but any continued declines below these current levels will quickly become more worrisome."
Bunker added that it may take an interest rate cut to ensure employers' demand for workers does not tumble too far in the coming months.
Federal Reserve officials still believe the job market remains on solid footing, comfortably keeping interest rates at a 23-year high as they await more inflation evidence.
