The final round of the Ekstraklasa season on Saturday, May 23, 2026, will determine which of three clubs secures a historic second-place finish and a spot in the UEFA Champions League.
Lech Poznań has already clinched the championship title, leaving Górnik Zabrze, Jagiellonia Białystok, and Raków Częstochowa to battle for the runner-up position.
Champions League Qualification at Stake
Poland receives a second Champions League qualification spot for the first time in history, thanks to its improved UEFA country ranking.
The runner-up will enter the second qualifying round via the league path and can guarantee a Europa League group stage spot by winning just one of three potential two-legged ties.
Statistical projections from Symuligi, based on Elo ratings, give Górnik Zabrze a 64 percent probability of finishing second, followed by Jagiellonia Białystok at 25 percent and Raków Częstochowa at 12 percent.
Górnik Zabrze currently holds 53 points and controls its destiny due to a superior head-to-head record against Jagiellonia.
A home victory over Radomiak Radom would secure the runner-up position.
Jagiellonia Białystok also has 53 points but must outperform Górnik in the final round, facing Zagłębie Lubin at home.
Raków Częstochowa sits at 52 points and needs a win against Arki Gdynia, combined with dropped points from both rivals.
If all three teams finish level on 53 points, Górnik claims second place, Raków third, and Jagiellonia fourth based on a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker.
Relegation Battle and Other European Spots
The final round also decides the fifth and final European spot for the UEFA Conference League qualification. GKS Katowice, KGHM Zagłębie Lubin, and Legia Warszawa are in contention.
GKS Katowice secures the spot with an away victory against Pogoń Szczecin, while Legia Warszawa, managed by Marek Papszun, must defeat Motor Lublin and rely on external results.
At the bottom of the table, Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza and Arka Gdynia are already relegated.
Lechia Gdańsk, Widzew Łódź, Cracovia, and Piast Gliwice are fighting to avoid the final relegation slot.
Lechia Gdańsk faces a must-win away match against Termalica Nieciecza, as any other result confirms their relegation due to an inferior head-to-head record against Widzew Łódź.
Football expert Zbigniew Koźmiński shared his analysis on the relegation battle with sportowefakty. wp.
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He expressed skepticism about the survival of Widzew Łódź, citing psychological fitness and internal organization as key factors.
He noted that Cracovia is likely safe, needing just one point, while Widzew's internal struggles could cost them their top-flight spot.
Mathematical scenarios show that Cracovia and Piast Gliwice only require a draw to guarantee safety. Widzew secures survival with a victory over Piast.
Piast Gliwice faces relegation only if they lose to Widzew and Lechia Gdańsk wins, which would leave both teams tied on points but hand Lechia the advantage on head-to-head results.
