Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow 43% to 42% lead over Democratic State Representative James Talarico in the race for the U.
S. Senate, according to a University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll released Tuesday.
The survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted June 5-12, follows Paxton's primary runoff victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn on May 26.
Independent polling aggregated from June 1 to June 21 shows Paxton with a 1.25 percentage point advantage, drawing 45.75% support to Talarico's 44.5%.
Independent Voters Key to Tightening Race
The narrowing margin is driven largely by independent voters, who favor Talarico over Paxton 40% to 12%.
The Cook Political Report has downgraded the seat from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
Political advertising spending in Texas is projected to hit $850 million this year, with the Senate matchup alone drawing $446 million, according to Ad Impact Politics.
Paxton Addresses Legal Controversies
Paxton addressed his legal issues, including a 2015 securities fraud indictment resolved by a 2024 plea deal and a subsequent impeachment acquittal, in a national broadcast interview.
"Accusations don't mean that the thing actually happened," Paxton said. "They have to prove these things in our country.
That they did not do with President Trump, and that they did not do with me."
Paxton expressed openness to consolidating the party with Cornyn, though he noted he has not received formal correspondence from the senator regarding an endorsement.
"I don't know what John is going to decide," Paxton said. "I'd be happy to talk to him.
I'd love to have his help and support."
Republican senior advisor Nick Maddux acknowledged the competitive nature of the race.
"Make no mistake, this race is a dead heat, and the job is far from finished," Maddux said.
Former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams urged President Trump to campaign actively in Texas to motivate grassroots volunteers.
"He needs to pitch a tent in Texas," Williams said, emphasizing the need to protect the Republican winning streak in statewide contests since 1994.
Williams warned that a loss in Texas could negatively impact five other competitive Republican-held Senate seats nationwide.
"The narrative has always been that we're red, that we're redder than red," Williams said.
"The last thing we want to do is to give Democrats one inkling of an idea that they can win a statewide race in Texas."
Williams noted that Democrats have not won a U. S.
Senate seat in Texas since 1988 or any statewide office since 1994.
He stressed that Paxton must work to win over the roughly 30% of primary voters who supported Cornyn.
"Paxton is going to have to work really hard to make sure that those 30% of voters who voted for Senator Cornyn show up and vote for Paxton," Williams said.
Williams expressed skepticism about a full endorsement from Cornyn, placing the burden on Paxton to rally traditional conservatives, including "Bushites."
Democratic nominee James Talarico, who raised $3 million within 24 hours of Paxton's primary victory, bringing his total to over $40 million, launched an ad campaign targeting moderate voters.
His commercial, titled "Drowning," highlights rising costs of healthcare, fuel, and groceries.
"In the Senate, I'll take on corruption and keep fighting to lower your costs," Talarico said.
Southern Methodist University political science professor Matthew Wilson noted that Paxton's legal issues represent a headwind, though their impact on the vote remains uncertain.
Paxton's campaign released a localized ad titled "Hypocrite" in the Corpus Christi market, focusing on Talarico's past statements and legislative record.
