Democrat Amy Acton holds a 50.4% to 41.4% lead over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio's governor race, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY Ohio Network poll.
The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 23 to Sept.
27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Libertarian candidate Don Kissick received 2.8% support in the poll, which used the 2018 midterm electorate as its modeling baseline.
Methodology and Independent Shift
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, defended the modeling approach.
"There are times when you have outliers, then there are times when you're picking up trends that maybe haven't been picked up by others before," Paleologos said.
He noted that the 2018 midterm was the most recent competitive cycle following a presidential election year, though future turnout remains uncertain.
"That could be wrong," Paleologos said.
"Maybe the same people who showed up for president in 2024 will show up, and you'll have the biggest turnout ever in the history of Ohio in the midterm.
No way to tell, but we have to go with what we know to be true, which is there is an election to model after, and that was the 2018 midterm in Ohio."
Independent voters have shifted significantly, with 64% backing Acton and 27% supporting Ramaswamy.
"Independents are having buyer's remorse. Their lives aren't better," Paleologos said.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, offered broader context.
"You could be sort of skeptical about polling, but I think you could also just put your head in the sand and say Republicans are going to win no matter what.
And that doesn't seem right either," Kondik said.
Voters in the survey cited different motivations. Charlene Jamison, 69, of Cincinnati, said she would vote for any Democrat.
"Whoever the Democrat is, they'll get my vote," Jamison said.
"And it's not because they're Democrats; it's because this administration is crooked and something's really wrong with the president.
He's a crook."
Lisa Brown, 68, of Cincinnati, said she supports the Republican candidate but described him as the lesser of two evils.
"It was a very trying time, and that has a lot to do with it," Brown said.
"I just feel like that has a bad spot in my memory: not being able to go to funerals, not being able to do family things.
Having a family member die and not being able to be there."
The poll also found that 47.6% of respondents viewed Ramaswamy's campaign as more negative, compared to 22.8% for Acton.
