France's far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen faces a decisive moment regarding her political future.
A Paris appeals court will rule on Tuesday on her bid to overturn a ban on holding elected office.
The legal battle follows a lower court ruling last year that handed Le Pen a five-year ban from public office.
The court also issued a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, over allegations of embezzling European Parliament funds.
Possible Outcomes for Le Pen
Observers have outlined several possible outcomes. The best-case scenario, which most analysts deem the least likely, would be an acquittal.
Le Pen acknowledged a mistake during the appeal trial, noting that some staff paid as EU aides had worked in France, though she stated she believed such work was allowed.
Alternatively, the court could find her guilty but shorten the electoral ban to two years or less, or lift it entirely.
Because the lower court ordered the ban to take immediate effect, Le Pen has been serving it since March 31 last year.
A shortened ban of two years or less would expire before the first round of the presidential vote scheduled for April 18, 2027.
However, any jail term or electronic monitoring would still severely hinder her ability to campaign. The judicial decision holds massive significance for the political landscape in France.
The ruling will determine whether the far-right National Rally (RN) candidate to succeed President Emmanuel Macron will be Le Pen or her protege, Jordan Bardella.
The appeals court could also order the electoral ban to take immediate effect.
In theory, Le Pen could appeal to France's highest court, which previously stated it would rule before the election.
Despite this option, Le Pen previously indicated she would be unlikely to take her appeal further.
She argued that prolonged uncertainty would jeopardize her party's chances ahead of the 2027 election cycle.
“If I’m allowed to be a candidate, but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely – then you understand, that wouldn’t be possible,” Le Pen told French television last week.
“I can’t be dependent on a judge to authorise me to campaign.”
“You can’t launch a presidential campaign at the last minute,” Le Pen said during the appeal trial.
Recent polls suggest that both Le Pen and Bardella would comfortably win the first round of the 2027 election to reach the runoff.
Le Pen is credited with transforming the RN from a fringe nationalist movement into the single biggest party in France’s parliament.
The court is expected to start delivering the verdict early afternoon around 1:30 PM local time.
It is anticipated to take some time before all the legal details of the decision are fully disclosed.
