Moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel is forecast to sweep across Arizona from Saturday, October 10, through Tuesday, October 13, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms and powerful winds.
The system raises the risk of flash flooding while pulling temperatures down from triple digits into the 70s.
Flood Watches and Rainfall Totals
Northern and western Arizona face the greatest rainfall threat, according to forecasts reported by The Arizona Republic, ABC15 and FOX 10 Phoenix.
Flood watches cover parts of northwestern Arizona and areas near the Mogollon Rim, with some alerts extending into early Monday, October 12.
The National Weather Service offices identified risks from excessive runoff, urban flooding and rising water in rivers, creeks and other low-lying locations.
Western Mohave County faces a 40% risk of flash flooding on Sunday, October 11, while the western half of Arizona has a 15% risk.
Rainfall totals could reach 1 to 3 inches across Yavapai, Coconino and Mohave counties.
In the Phoenix metropolitan area, estimates range from a quarter of an inch to 1.50 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
ABC15 reported that parts of the Valley could receive between half an inch and an inch of rain from Saturday through Tuesday.
FOX 10 Phoenix also forecast 1 to 2 inches across parts of northern and western Arizona, while Phoenix could receive between a quarter of an inch and half an inch.
Rain is expected to become more widespread from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
The remnants of Rachel could produce additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday as another low-pressure trough moves through the region.
Wind Advisories and Storm Hazards
Wind advisories are scheduled across nearly the entire state on Sunday, with Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties excluded from the statewide advisory coverage described by The Arizona Republic.
Sustained winds could reach 35 mph, while peak gusts could reach 55 mph in some areas.
In Maricopa, northern Pinal and southern Gila counties, the advisory is scheduled from 8 a. m.
to 5 p. m.
Sunday.
Areas including Yavapai, Coconino, Navajo, Apache and northern Gila counties face advisories from 8 a. m.
to 8 p. m.
, while parts of southern and western Arizona have different alert periods.
The approaching system also carries a risk of blowing dust and isolated severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of central, southern and western Arizona under a marginal risk for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts the primary concern and an isolated tornado remaining possible.
Residents face additional hazards near normally dry washes, creeks, swimming holes, recently burned areas and low-water crossings.
ABC15 warned that these locations could flood quickly and advised against driving through flooded crossings.
Phoenix recorded a high of 104 degrees on Friday, October 9, compared with a normal high of 92 degrees, according to FOX 10 Phoenix.
Temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower 90s Saturday, the 80s Sunday and Monday, and the upper 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday, October 13–14.
Cooler conditions are expected to persist after the storm system moves through.
According to FOX 10 Phoenix, temperatures should return to the 80s later in the week, with overnight lows in the 60s.
