The race for the first quarterback selected in the 2027 NFL Draft is far from settled, but Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker has emerged as the early frontrunner.
The Athletic draft analyst Dane Brugler named Mestemaker his current top choice on Best Pod Available, while keeping Notre Dame's CJ Carr firmly in contention.
Brugler pointed to the November 7 matchup between Notre Dame and Miami as a major evaluation opportunity for Carr and Miami's Darian Mensah.
That assessment contrasts with preseason expectations that had Texas quarterback Arch Manning among the leading candidates.
Mestemaker's Unlikely Rise
Mestemaker's rapid ascent has drawn attention because of his limited experience as a starter.
He began his career as a walk-on at North Texas before transferring to Oklahoma State, and he entered the 2027 draft conversation after just six games as a Big 12 starter.
Brugler described Mestemaker as "big, strong, athletic," highlighting his arm strength and ability to fit passes into tight windows.
He compared the Oklahoma State quarterback to New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough, while suggesting Mestemaker has more developmental upside.
The analyst also cited the importance of additional college experience, pointing to Cam Ward and Jayden Daniels as quarterbacks who returned to school before becoming top-two draft picks.
Mestemaker had generally been viewed as a potential 2028 prospect before his recent progress, leaving open the possibility that another season could strengthen his long-term evaluation.
Carr and Mensah Face Crucial Evaluations
Miami's Mensah and Notre Dame's Carr remain serious alternatives, although Brugler identified different developmental questions for each player.
He said Mensah would be a first-round selection if the draft took place immediately, but questioned whether his physical tools and pocket composure would limit his ceiling.
Brugler praised Mensah's accuracy, touch, confidence and understanding of where to distribute the football.
He also noted that Miami's financial offer could influence the quarterback's decision about entering the NFL draft.
Carr's evaluation centers on his development as a relatively inexperienced starter.
Brugler said the Notre Dame quarterback still has areas to improve and assessed his physical tools as solid rather than exceptional.
Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, now with the Atlanta Falcons, previously compared Carr to Matt Ryan during Carr's high school recruitment.
The comparison focused on Carr's command of the position rather than exceptional physical attributes.
Brugler emphasized the importance of Carr's upcoming performances when discussing his draft position.
"If you ask me this question in December, maybe those two, one of those two names would be my answer," Brugler said, referring to Carr and Mensah.
The November 7 meeting between Notre Dame and Miami is expected to provide an important head-to-head evaluation, while the College Football Playoff could further shape the rankings.
Brugler said those games could help determine whether Carr and Mensah establish themselves as top-10 prospects or slip lower in the draft order.
Meanwhile, Manning's uneven season has complicated his path toward the top of the quarterback class.
In Texas' 27-24 loss to Oklahoma, he threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns but also committed two fourth-quarter interceptions, including one returned 42 yards for a touchdown by Peyton Bowen.
ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid has assessed Manning as a Day 2 prospect, and ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. placed him sixth among quarterbacks on his updated board.
Manning has made 20 career starts, and another season at Texas or elsewhere could provide additional opportunities to improve his consistency and decision-making.
Sports Illustrated also identified several other quarterbacks whose draft prospects could benefit from another college season.
LSU's Sam Leavitt has thrown eight interceptions in six games, the most in the FBS, while UCLA's Nico Iamaleava faces uncertainty after a knee injury suffered against Oregon on October 10.
South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers has shown significant playmaking ability but remains inconsistent from a clean pocket, according to performance grades cited by Sports Illustrated.
Minnesota's Drake Lindsey has displayed downfield arm strength, although his production and decision-making remain areas for development.
Brugler also highlighted defensive prospects during the discussion, naming Georgia's Chris Cole as a potential top-15 selection and identifying Utah left tackle Zereoue Williams as the biggest riser on his board.
The quarterback rankings remain subject to change as the season progresses toward the November 7 Notre Dame-Miami game.
