ESPN released its annual NFL Football Power Index projections on Monday, placing the Cincinnati Bengals 12th overall and assessing their postseason prospects after an aggressive offseason roster reconstruction.
The analytic model, published by Seth Walder, gives the Bengals a 69.2% probability of entering the playoffs—the third-highest chance in the AFC behind the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
The predictive ratings use betting market win totals, team schedules, quarterback depth differentials, and special teams metrics to simulate the season thousands of times.
Cincinnati is favored to win 15 of its games, securing the second-most favored status in the NFL while facing the third-easiest schedule based on opponent winning percentages.
FOX Sports NFL reporter Greg Auman listed the Bengals as the fifth-most likely non-playoff team from last year to return to the postseason, referencing BetMGM Sportsbook odds that position the team as a -155 favorite.
Auman noted that defensive liabilities have previously offset the team's high-powered passing offense under head coach Zac Taylor.
To address these vulnerabilities, Cincinnati acquired major defensive players during the offseason, including Dexter Lawrence, Bryan Cook, Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe.
"The Cincinnati Bengals' defense has been enough of a liability to negate a prolific passing game with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, keeping them out of the playoffs three years in a row," wrote Auman.
The defensive upgrades have heightened expectations among the roster for the upcoming season. Franchise stars have openly articulated championship targets during ongoing offseason workout programs.
"I think this is the most talented roster that we've had since I've been here," said quarterback Joe Burrow.
He expressed absolute confidence in the collective strength of the newly reconstructed group and emphasized a clear objective.
"We're going to go win a lot of games this year and play great and win a Super Bowl," Burrow said.
Wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase reinforced these performance expectations while reflecting on the team's absence from the championship stage since their appearance in 2021.
"At the end of the day, we got to the Super Bowl in '21 and never went back," Chase said.
He explained that management's recent personnel decisions have motivated the existing roster.
"So, expectations have always been high since 2021.
But now that we have improved our defense a little more, the expectations have gone up for the defense to show us what they could do.
The moves they made are showing us they want to be with us, too.
They want to push us and help us be at the next level where we know we could be at, that we know we needed," Chase said.
The FPI model displays less confidence in the team securing the championship, assigning Cincinnati a 4.0% chance to win the Super Bowl—11th overall in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams hold the highest championship probability at 14.9%, followed by the Buffalo Bills in the double-digit tier.
A potential championship rematch between the Bengals and the Rams is calculated as a 2.0% probability, representing the ninth most likely Super Bowl matchup in the NFL.
Their previous title meeting in February 2022 resulted in a 23-20 victory for Los Angeles, where Burrow was sacked seven times despite throwing for 263 yards.
Within the AFC North, the FPI ranks the Baltimore Ravens highest at third overall with a 9.4% championship probability.
The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 22nd while the Cleveland Browns occupy the 30th position, leaving both outside the top 16 championship contenders.
