US stock futures pointed to steep losses and crude oil prices surged more than 6% on Wednesday, July 8, 2026, after President Trump announced that the US ceasefire with Iran is officially over.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 527 points, or 1%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% and Nasdaq futures declined 1.3%.
Brent crude jumped 6.3% to $78.80 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate rose 6.4% to $75 amid fears of energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The market reaction follows recent attacks by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on three tankers, which prompted retaliatory US military strikes and the revocation of a temporary sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales.
"The ceasefire between the US and Iran was always fragile, and some flare-ups were inevitable, unfortunately," said Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics.
Sweet noted that higher energy costs could negatively impact the inflation outlook, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to sustain higher interest rates.
"If the peace deal breaks, and it's too early to tell, it won't just raise oil prices; it would also increase pressure on AI supply chains in Asia, force central banks to be hawkish, tighten financial conditions and could shift the outcome of the US midterms," Sweet said.
Other analysts offered a more optimistic view, suggesting Washington remains hesitant to enter a full-scale military escalation.
"Stocks took a dive around 4 am ET after Trump declared that the Iran ceasefire was 'over,' and while the current détente is certainly under strain, we continue to think the White House is extremely reluctant to escalate militarily and fully return to hostilities and therefore, a deal remains much more likely than not," said Adam Crisafulli, analyst at Vital Knowledge.
Industry experts also indicated that global energy supply chains have previously established mechanisms to handle regional geopolitical friction.
"The market has adapted to the reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, found alternative routes, and global demand has fallen," said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro.
