“I think inaction on behalf of the Democrats is costing them votes,” said Toni Gordon, an East Lansing election chairperson.
“The performative, old-school way of doing things … it’s costing them voter support.”
Gordon, a left-leaning former Army reservist, backs El-Sayed but predicts Stevens will win due to name recognition and party machine support.
Detroit, home to one of the largest Black populations in the US, could decide the state's outcome.
“Michigan is only a swing state if Black people choose not to vote,” Gordon noted. “A large number of them will not vote this election.”
Turnout among young voters is also critical.
Polls show El-Sayed leading among voters under 44, but the August 4 primary falls during summer break, when many college students are away from their Michigan addresses.
Michigan, which Trump won in 2024, is a diverse political patchwork. Macomb, which flipped from Obama to Trump, gave Trump 53% in 2020 and nearly 56% in 2024.
Wayne County, home to Detroit and Dearborn, went for Kamala Harris in 2024 but swung nine points toward Trump.
Dearborn itself flipped, with Trump becoming the first Republican to win a plurality there since 2000 in a city with a large Arab American population.
Kent County, anchored by Grand Rapids, moved the opposite way, voting for Harris by five points.
Trump was the first Republican to win the White House without Kent County since 1916.
Dispatches from Dearborn
Ali Fawaz, 34, a lifelong Dearborn resident and independent, said the city's Trump vote was never about Trump.
