New cars are growing longer, wider, taller, and higher off the ground every year, and researchers say it's time to put the brakes on the trend they call "carspreading."
A study from Europe's Transport & Environment (T&E) and Clean Cities warns that if vehicle dimensions keep expanding at the current rate, cities could lose parking spaces, vulnerable road users could face greater risks, and drivers could end up paying more.
According to the report, newly sold cars have grown an average of 1.2 cm longer and 0.5 cm taller each year.
Width and bonnet heights have also increased by roughly 0.5 cm annually. This pattern has continued since 2000, even as the average family size has shrunk.
Two Possible Futures
The study compares two scenarios. In one, automakers follow current market trends, with larger vehicles and more SUVs dominating sales.
In the other, policymakers encourage "right-sizing," gradually returning average vehicle dimensions to 2010-2015 levels.
If vehicles keep swelling, researchers estimate cities could lose between 8.5 and 14 percent of their on-street parking capacity by 2040.
London and Berlin alone could each lose around 100,000 parking spaces.
Safety is another major concern. Higher hood heights are linked to more severe outcomes for pedestrians and cyclists.
The report estimates that continuing current trends could result in roughly 2,570 additional vulnerable road user deaths between now and 2040, compared to a right-sizing scenario.
Energy consumption also plays a role. Larger vehicles weigh more and consume more energy, whether gasoline or electric.
T&E estimates that Europe's EV fleet would need an additional 22.5 terawatt-hours of electricity annually by 2040 under the current trend, equivalent to the output of about 1,500 onshore wind turbines.
It also predicts more than 100 million additional barrels of imported oil consumption over the same period.
Proposed Solutions
The report calls for hood height caps of 85 cm, width limits of 192 cm, taxes tied to vehicle dimensions, parking fees based on size, and regulatory incentives for smaller EVs under 4.2 meters long.
Whether these ideas gain traction remains to be seen. Consumers have favored SUVs and crossovers for two decades, and automakers profit more from larger vehicles.
The real challenge may be convincing automakers to build smaller cars again.
