The US and Iran have returned to a pattern of threats and military strikes, jeopardizing the fragile progress made in recent months.
The cycle, though familiar, carries grave consequences for global stability and humanitarian efforts.
Escalation Resumes After Brief Lull
On Sunday, Tehran announced it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again, a key waterway for global energy and fertilizer shipments.
The move came after Iran struck ships transiting the strait, prompting US retaliation.
The World Food Programme reports it is feeding 1.5 million fewer people this year due to the ongoing conflict.
Vulnerable nations are hit hardest, with an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia and 2.3 million in Afghanistan struggling to meet basic food needs.
The full impact on food production has yet to be felt, as soaring fertilizer prices have led many farmers to cut back on usage.
Remittances from migrant workers in the Gulf have dried up, hurting economies in Asia and Africa.
In Iran and Lebanon, thousands of civilians, including many children, have been killed, and essential infrastructure destroyed.
Iranians face deepening economic catastrophe, while the regime cracks down harder under the cover of war.
Tehran's retaliation has caused death and damage across the region. Consumers worldwide are paying more for energy and food.
Diplomatic Efforts Falter
With US midterms approaching, domestic pressure pushed President Trump to agree to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, allowing 60 days to negotiate a broader deal.
However, less than a month in, strikes resumed after Iran targeted ships using a US-coordinated route.
A key section of the MOU remains contentious.
It states that Iran will restore shipping, ensure safe passage, and work with Oman on the strait's future administration, with the possibility of future fees left open.
Iran interpreted this as cementing its control, not overturning it.
Rhetoric from both sides has escalated.
Tehran decreed that revenge for the killing of its late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, “must inevitably be carried out.”
Trump responded by threatening to “decimate and destroy all areas of Iran” if he faces any assassination attempt, calling Iranian leaders “scum.”
Despite claiming the MOU and ceasefire are over, Trump maintains that talks will continue. This “doom loop” increases suspicion and complicates issues with each iteration.
The US could reverse course to allow Iran to export oil, but the sector cannot recover without customer confidence.
Ending the war depends on resolving Iranian control of the strait, an issue the war itself created.
The immediate priority should be facilitating humanitarian shipments. Oman and other parties are attempting to establish an exit route from the crisis.
One proposal would allow navigational fees on a non-compulsory basis under a UN body, though leverage may matter more than profit to a militarized, hardline regime.
Trump wants a triumph, not a compromise.
But neither side can secure decisive victory, and neither wants an open-ended war, even if they are unwilling to make concessions.
The rest of the world must try to coax them back to their senses or live with the consequences.
