On 26 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered a 40-day campaign targeting Russian military and infrastructure, aiming to compel Moscow to end the war.
The operation has escalated attacks on key supply lines, Crimea, and major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg, causing a fuel crisis in Russia.
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Strategic and Psychological Goals
Analysts view the 40-day timeframe as a symbolic Orthodox Christian reference, suggesting Russia is in purgatory.
Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House notes it also pressures Putin ahead of September Duma elections.
Phillips O'Brien of the University of St Andrews describes the campaign as psychological, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russia and precipitate an oil crisis.
Scope of the Campaign
Ukraine's efforts include a middle strike strategy disrupting supply lines and long-range strikes on refineries, military sites, and cities.
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan calls it an influence operation targeting Russia's war economy, claiming 42.74% of oil refining capacity disabled by 5 July.
Recent strikes hit airfields in Crimea, the St Petersburg oil terminal, and refineries near Moscow, among other targets.
Impact on Russia includes long queues at petrol stations and growing public shock as drones fly over major cities.
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In Crimea, strikes on bridges and roads have caused power cuts and a siege-like atmosphere.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that the campaign has sparked internal criticism of Russia's air defense failures.
Ukraine's successes may have improved relations with the Trump administration.
At a recent NATO summit, Trump suggested allowing Ukraine to produce Patriot missile interceptors under license, a significant shift from earlier tensions.
Lutsevych sees this as psychologically important, signaling that the US now views Ukraine as a strategic partner.
Speculation suggests the campaign may continue beyond 40 days, possibly including strikes on Moscow with new ballistic missiles.
Denys Shtilerman of Fire Point claims such missiles would be difficult to intercept.
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Ukraine may also attempt to retake territory as Russian forces become overstretched. Lutsevych believes the campaign will likely intensify, not end.
