Global climate forecasting centers reported in July 2026 that the ongoing El Niño event is intensifying rapidly across the Pacific Ocean.
Models indicate it could become one of the strongest on record by late 2026.
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Data published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reached +1.5°C in June 2026.
That marks the highest June reading since 1982.
NOAA assigned a 97% probability that El Niño conditions will persist into early 2027.
There is also an 81% chance of a very strong event between October and December 2026.
By the week of July 15, 2026, absolute temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region exceeded +2.0°C for a second consecutive week.
Subsurface waters down to 300 meters held temperature anomalies over +6.0°C near the surface.
Global sea surface temperatures between 60°N and 60°S have consistently broken historical daily records since June.
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They have climbed above 29°C during the Southern Hemisphere winter.
Updated Model Projections
Updated ensemble simulations from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University combine forecasts from 24 dynamical and statistical models.
The latest dynamical projections indicate sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific could reach approximately 3.1°C between October and December 2026, up from the 2.6°C peak estimated in June.
Independent model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through the Copernicus Climate Change Service project anomalies rising above 3.0°C in October.
They could reach up to 3.5°C by December 2026.
Despite the severe oceanic warming, financial analysis firm ING noted that global agricultural production has historically shown resilience during strong El Niño events due to expanded irrigation coverage and advanced seed technology.
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However, agricultural output in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly perennial crops like palm oil and sugar cane, faces heightened risk of localized disruption.
