Past and present leaders of wealthy nations, including the UK and Germany, have argued that their countries' actions on climate change are insignificant because they contribute only a small percentage of global emissions.
On first hearing, this position sounds reasonable.
In 2023, then-UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak asked: "When our share of global emissions is less than 1%, how can it be right that British citizens are now being told to sacrifice even more than others?"
Sunak is not alone.
In 2019, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison cited his country's 1.3% share to reject suggestions that Australia was not doing its part.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pointed to Germany's 2% share in July while supporting loopholes in European climate targets.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni later flagged the EU's 6% share.
Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has consulted for petrostates, used the UK's 1% share to urge abandoning clean economy targets.
These arguments often contrast small emitters with the US, China, and India, which together produce just over half of carbon pollution.
The claim suggests that small but wealthy countries cannot stop worsening extreme weather events.
Merz said last summer: "Even if we were all climate neutral in Germany tomorrow, not a single natural disaster would be prevented anywhere in the world."
Historical Emissions and Per Capita Responsibility
Climate scientists point out that the metric that matters most for global heating is historical emissions, where wealthy countries have a much larger share.
Per person, European countries have contributed disproportionately to emissions. Progress in cleaning their economies is only now bringing annual emissions close to the global average.
Prof Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds, said: "These leaders wouldn't like it if the top 1% of their wealthiest citizens didn't pay their taxes, so the argument is fallacious and simply buck-passing."
He added that future warming is driven by future emissions, so every tonne of carbon dioxide avoided improves temperature and heatwave outcomes for generations.
The three most populous countries – the US, China, and India – were the only ones responsible for more than 5% of carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2024.
But the remaining 194 countries together account for just under half of humanity's yearly emissions, even though each can claim to be less than 5% of the problem.
Despite this, the argument has been used to justify delaying action by some of the biggest polluters. It has also found a home with nationalist-populist parties across Europe.
Far-right leaders and energy spokespeople in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy have all used it to call for weakening climate policy in the last two years.
Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found 200 examples of such claims in national newspapers of 27 countries responsible for less than 2% of global CO2 emissions last year.
One example is a March 2025 editorial in the British newspaper the Times, which stated: "Climate change is clearly a problem, yet Britain, which contributes around 1% of global emissions, can do little to stop it."
A YouGov poll for the ECIU in April found one in four Britons think countries emitting less than 1% should stop trying to reduce emissions.
The share was highest among voters of Reform UK, half of whom thought such countries should not continue cutting emissions.
Party leader Nigel Farage said it was "absolutely mindless" for a country producing less than 1% of global CO2 to "beggar itself."
Dr Ella Gilbert, a climate scientist and ECIU board member, said: "The climate crisis is a global problem and every country should be acting to reduce emissions, especially those with the largest historical responsibility, like the UK.
The climate doesn't care where carbon comes from."
She added that reaching net zero is the only way to restore the climate and avoid dangerous tipping points.
"The UK may account for just 1% of current global emissions, but we're responsible for 100% of our own emissions, and we have the opportunity to show global leadership by bringing them down."
