Labour has moved back into the lead in British opinion polls after Andy Burnham became prime minister and secured a decisive win in the Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election.
Recent surveys place Labour in the mid-to-high 20s, opening a gap of up to five points over Nigel Farage's Reform UK for the first time in over a year.
BMG Research recorded Labour at 28% against Reform's 23%, while Convergent MRP polling showed Labour at 26% and Reform at 23%.
The shift follows Burnham's rapid introduction of cost-of-living measures, including a £2 bus fare cap, business rate reductions for hospitality, and lower electricity bills.
In Manchester, Labour secured 47% of first-preference votes, nearly double its regional result from May's local elections.
Analysts See Limits in the Bounce
Despite the surge, election analysts note that Labour remains short of a general election majority and still depends on winning back progressive voters from the Greens and Liberal Democrats rather than attracting Reform supporters.
Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, said, "The Burnham bounce is real but it's not massive."
Curtice observed that Labour's standing has recovered from the 19% left by Sir Keir Starmer but remains lower than the 35% achieved in the 2024 general election.
"Burnham's party still has a long way to go before it can face the prospect of fighting a general election with confidence," he added.
Dylan Spielman, Co-founder of Convergent, commented, "The Andy Burnham bounce is real but not yet big enough to put Labour back on course for a majority."
Spielman pointed out that while progressive voters have largely returned, former Labour voters who shifted to Reform remain difficult to win back.
"Sustaining the recovery will depend on Labour continuing to demonstrate that its cost-of-living agenda is delivering, and broadening its appeal beyond progressives," he said.
Rob Struthers, Research Director at BMG Research, noted, "We can begin to be confident that the Burnham bounce is real."
Struthers added that Reform UK is facing pressure from both the Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch and the breakaway Restore Britain party led by Rupert Lowe.
"Burnham's flurry of announcements have clearly struck a chord," he said.
Public opinion on the timing of a national vote has also shifted, with support for an immediate general election dropping from 49% last month to 40%, aligning with Burnham's intention to rule out an early election in favor of policy implementation.
