Forecasters are monitoring Invest 92L in the southern Gulf of Mexico, where it could strengthen into at least a tropical depression later this week.
The system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast.
A large cold front stretching across Florida and the Gulf is already producing continuous heavy rain.
Forecasts suggest a defined storm center could form near the front by Thursday or Friday, aided by record-high Gulf water temperatures dating back to 1982.
Development Hinges on Midweek Conditions
Whether the system intensifies depends heavily on atmospheric interactions midweek.
Severe wind shear driven by El Niño and surrounding dry air are significant obstacles during this period.
The FOX Forecast Center said a more defined system in the southern Gulf would be able to defend itself from the hostile conditions.
Meteorologists note that while some computer models hint at the season's first hurricane, high uncertainty remains over whether the storm intensifies or stays suppressed near Mexico's coastline.
The FOX Forecast Center added that some models are hinting at a possible first hurricane, but there is still a lot to fine tune as uncertainty remains extremely high.
Regardless of tropical formation, heavy precipitation is expected to reach Louisiana and Florida by the weekend.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for parts of the Southeast for Friday and Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center continues to track Invest 92L in the Gulf of Mexico, with potential development into a tropical depression or hurricane later this week.
