An anonymous participant on the prediction market platform Polymarket has placed a substantial bet that Vladimir Putin will no longer be president of Russia by the end of 2026.
The user, known as "ZnotluvuiSamez," staked €357,000 on this outcome, according to a July 5 report by NBC News.
>>> Norway Holds Brazil to Draw as Nyland Saves Guimaraes Penalty
The bettor's profile features a Ukrainian flag, and the account is linked to an X (formerly Twitter) account that shares screenshots of the wagers along with derogatory comments about the Russian leader.
A portion of the stake, €43,800, was added only recently.
Market odds currently place the probability of Putin leaving office by that deadline at just 12%. Russia's next presidential election is not scheduled until 2030.
If the unlikely scenario occurs, the bettor stands to win approximately €2.2 million.
Additional High-Risk Wager on Crimea
The same account holds another high-risk bet worth €53,000, predicting that Ukraine will regain control of Crimea before the end of 2026.
Market participants assess that probability at 12% as well.
>>> Azteca Stadium Issues Shelter Order Ahead of Mexico-England Match
Little is known about the trader's identity. The Polymarket account was created in April 2026.
This betting activity comes as US authorities push for stricter regulation of decentralized prediction markets.
In June, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed new rules to prohibit wagers deemed contrary to the public interest or vulnerable to manipulation.
The proposed restrictions could affect prediction pools tied to military operations, terrorist activities, or assassinations. It remains unclear whether political gambling of this nature will face immediate sanctions.
Recent controversies have highlighted manipulation risks.
In April, a US special forces soldier was accused of using classified intelligence to win over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on a covert operation against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
>>> Flavio Cobolli Replicates Matheus Cunha Celebration at Wimbledon
Separately, competing platform Kalshi blocked accounts of three political candidates who tried to bet on their own election campaigns, raising conflict-of-interest concerns.
