"Families love going to the movies but right now there are three of them," Dergarabedian said. "That's a lot of competition."
He noted that PG-rated films have dominated box office earnings in 2024 and 2025, suggesting Moana's debut reflects a market ceiling rather than family movie fatigue.
Historical data shows family films often have long legs; Minions & Monsters dropped only 45% this weekend despite a soft opening, reaching $108.3 million domestically.
The total domestic box office for the year stands at nearly $5.2 billion, up 10.7% from the same period last year.
May and June each generated over $1 billion in North America, but July has struggled with underperformers like Supergirl.
Momentum is expected to pick up with the release of Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day.
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"They could power a stronger August than July at the box office, which would be very unusual," Dergarabedian said.
