Fifty-eight percent of non-retirees say they are confident they will retire on schedule, according to Thrivent's 2026 Retirement Expectations Survey, yet 46% have never calculated a specific savings target needed for retirement.
Between the first quarters of 2024 and 2026, the personal savings rate dropped sharply from 6.2% to 3.9%, as rising wages were absorbed by increased spending.
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Inflation measured by headline PCE reached 4.07% in May 2026, outpacing the 2.8% Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment, which erodes real benefits for current retirees.
Confidence Gap and Planning Behavior
Thrivent's data shows that nearly two-thirds of non-retirees focus more on their current finances than on retirement planning, creating confidence without a concrete savings goal.
The Employee Benefit Research Institute's 2026 survey found workers' confidence in having enough for retirement fell 6 percentage points to 61%, while retirees' confidence dropped 5 points to 73%.
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The common 4% withdrawal rule for retirees is criticized as outdated.
Two retirees starting with $1 million and following this rule had vastly different outcomes: one ended with $1.4 million, while the other depleted savings in 12 years.
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Experts suggest building an income floor from dividends, interest, and Social Security to cover essential expenses, avoiding selling investments in down markets.
