British dairy farm profits are projected to drop by two-thirds in the coming year, as soaring operational expenses and falling raw milk prices squeeze producers, agricultural analysts warn.
According to data from agricultural consultancy groups, average farm profits could fall to 3.96p per liter in 2026/27, down from 12.43p per liter in 2025/26.
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In Ireland, average family farm incomes are expected to decline 38% to €33,600, with dairy sector earnings dropping 49% to €78,000 due to global market surpluses and energy disruptions.
Farmers Struggle with Unsustainable Costs
At Tumble Tye Farm near Folkestone, co-manager Rob Warnock reported operating at a loss since December.
Fertilizer prices have risen 30% and fuel jumped 50% over the last year.
Defra figures indicate average farmgate milk prices dropped to 34p per liter in May 2026, down from 2025 peaks of 46p.
“At the moment the dairy job is really unsustainable,” said Rob Warnock.
He noted that high overhead costs and labor shortages force long working hours that yield returns below minimum wage levels.
“We’re having to speak to the bank manager literally just this week to see if we can increase the overdraft so we can pay the bills at the end of the month,” he added.
“The business can’t go on like that indefinitely.”
His brother and business partner, Will Warnock, expressed concerns about passing the enterprise to future generations.
“I’ve got two young boys, nine and seven, and it would be nice if they were interested and wanted to continue it, but farming is not as appealing as it was when I was young,” he said.
