ESPN released its annual NFL Football Power Index projections on Monday, placing the Cincinnati Bengals 12th overall and assessing their postseason prospects after an aggressive offseason roster reconstruction.
The analytic model, published by Seth Walder, gives the Bengals a 69.2% probability of entering the playoffs—the third-highest chance in the AFC behind the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
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The predictive ratings use betting market win totals, team schedules, quarterback depth differentials, and special teams metrics to simulate the season thousands of times.
Cincinnati is favored to win 15 of its games, securing the second-most favored status in the NFL while facing the third-easiest schedule based on opponent winning percentages.
FOX Sports NFL reporter Greg Auman listed the Bengals as the fifth-most likely non-playoff team from last year to return to the postseason, referencing BetMGM Sportsbook odds that position the team as a -155 favorite.
Auman noted that defensive liabilities have previously offset the team's high-powered passing offense under head coach Zac Taylor.
To address these vulnerabilities, Cincinnati acquired major defensive players during the offseason, including Dexter Lawrence, Bryan Cook, Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe.
"The Cincinnati Bengals' defense has been enough of a liability to negate a prolific passing game with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, keeping them out of the playoffs three years in a row," wrote Auman.
The defensive upgrades have heightened expectations among the roster for the upcoming season. Franchise stars have openly articulated championship targets during ongoing offseason workout programs.
