The White House tried to make up for part of this, distributing $12bn last December to farmers who suffered what it called “unfair market disruptions”.
But Trump keeps adding burdens: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drastically raised the cost of fertilizer.
Meanwhile, repeated immigration raids have targeted the farm workforce.
The administration’s war against immigrants is weighing broadly on the labor force.
Trump’s crackdown has not only hit immigrant labor, it also reduced employment of Native men, who often take complementary jobs.
Trump’s trade war is having similar effects across his male-heavy blue-collar base. It’s too soon to estimate the specific impacts of his most recent rounds of tariffs.
But his claim that levies on industrial imports would boost domestic employment is in some tension with the decline in manufacturing jobs since he took office.
Studies find that the protectionism of his first administration invariably led to fewer manufacturing jobs.
That’s because tariffs raised the price domestic manufacturers paid for industrial inputs and machinery, eroding their competitiveness. Moreover, retaliation by other countries closed foreign markets to American-made stuff.
Male employment has fallen by more than 1.5 million since Trump came to office, while female employment has risen by nearly half a million.
Trump’s followers are right to be nervous.
If anything, his poor policy record has intensified his ambition to leave a mark. His next possible victim may be those that rely on North American trade.
Nine of the 10 states that most depend on exports to Mexico and Canada voted for Trump in 2024.
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If Trump follows through on his threat not to renew the trade pact with these two countries, any retaliatory tariffs against US products would fall disproportionately on his supporters.
