We can't increase what's coming out of the faucet. We have to decrease the flow out of the drain."
He cautioned against relying solely on winter weather patterns.
"I worry that there remains too much hope that we will be saved by the coming winter snowpack," Schmidt said.
"Hope and prayer is no way to run a national water system."
Federal projections indicate Lake Powell sits roughly 33 feet above its minimum power pool, risking hydroelectric generation at Glen Canyon Dam by spring 2027 if declines continue.
Policy and Local Responses
A Bureau of Reclamation spokesperson said the situation "highlights the ongoing vulnerability of the Colorado River system and reinforces the urgent need for updated guidelines and procedures."
The agency expects to release updated operational frameworks in the coming weeks.
Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, warned that low reservoir levels signal potential system crashes where water deliveries become physically impossible.
"The low reservoir levels are a dramatic signal that the system is at risk of crashing," she said.
Porter noted the legal complexity of convincing states to accept operational reductions. She suggested the sharp decline could force negotiators to reach terms.
"Even record snowpack this winter will not be enough to get us out of the danger zone," she added.
Kelly Shannon McNeill, managing director of LA Waterkeeper, criticized usage trends in northern basin states relative to lower basin reductions.
"In the last year alone, they've increased their use over the same period and say they can't afford cuts.
