Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow 43% to 42% lead over Democratic State Representative James Talarico in the race for the U.
S. Senate, according to a University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll released Tuesday.
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The survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted June 5-12, follows Paxton's primary runoff victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn on May 26.
Independent polling aggregated from June 1 to June 21 shows Paxton with a 1.25 percentage point advantage, drawing 45.75% support to Talarico's 44.5%.
Independent Voters Key to Tightening Race
The narrowing margin is driven largely by independent voters, who favor Talarico over Paxton 40% to 12%.
The Cook Political Report has downgraded the seat from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
Political advertising spending in Texas is projected to hit $850 million this year, with the Senate matchup alone drawing $446 million, according to Ad Impact Politics.
Paxton Addresses Legal Controversies
Paxton addressed his legal issues, including a 2015 securities fraud indictment resolved by a 2024 plea deal and a subsequent impeachment acquittal, in a national broadcast interview.
"Accusations don't mean that the thing actually happened," Paxton said. "They have to prove these things in our country.
That they did not do with President Trump, and that they did not do with me."
Paxton expressed openness to consolidating the party with Cornyn, though he noted he has not received formal correspondence from the senator regarding an endorsement.
