“And even though a shutdown isn’t reached fully until after 2100 (according to the latest research), the impacts are already going to be felt pretty soon in the next few decades unless the (carbon) emissions are reduced very fast,” Rahmstorf said.
Climate simulations indicate that noticeable regional cooling trends tied to the oceanographic slowdown could emerge within the next two decades.
“Cooling starting in the late 2030s, 2040s,” he said.
The scientist expressed deep concern over how these model projections align with direct deep-sea observations.
“And that actually is a big concern,” Rahmstorf said.
Rahmstorf added that the persistent cooling signature found up to 1,000 meters beneath the ocean surface rules out purely atmospheric causes like wind or cloud cover changes.
“Only explain a modest fraction of the warming hole,” he said.
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The data strongly point toward internal ocean dynamics rather than local surface heat loss as the primary driver behind the expanding subpolar anomaly.
“Even if, in some modelling approaches, it seems possible that the cold blob is caused by the atmosphere, in fact, the data show it is caused by the ocean,” Rahmstorf said.
In related scientific commentaries, Rahmstorf reinforced that the atmospheric impacts would pose immediate difficulties for international policymakers.
“The strong evidence for a weakening AMOC is a serious concern for society and policy,” he said.
He concluded his remarks by urging global leadership to prioritize the stabilization of Atlantic circulation systems.
