The United Nations' climate agency warned on Friday that a rapidly intensifying El Nino phenomenon will develop into a strong event by September, threatening global food production already strained by geopolitical conflicts and fertilizer supply shocks.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are warming consistently.
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This climate pattern disrupts worldwide weather, bringing droughts to Asia and Australia alongside heavy rainfall to South America.
The current weather disruption coincides with a severe fertilizer supply shock.
Reports from the International Rice Research Institute note that nitrogen-based fertilizer prices in Thailand and the Philippines have surged 40% to 50% since the start of the Iran conflict, which has blocked shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Experts warn that higher energy costs and reduced fertilizer use will weaken crop yields and resilience just as extreme weather patterns intensify.
Output for wheat and rice is expected to fall this year, with global rice crops projected to see a double-digit decline.
WMO officials emphasized that while climate change does not directly increase El Nino frequency, a warmer atmosphere amplifies its effects by providing more moisture and energy for heatwaves and extreme precipitation.
"El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the WMO said.
The agency stated that global climate models predict sea-surface temperature anomalies will exceed 2 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions, extending weather impacts well into 2027.
