Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader of France's National Rally (RN), has been convicted of embezzlement but will still run for president in 2027.
Her decision, announced shortly after the verdict, raises serious questions about the state of French democracy.
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The court of appeal upheld her conviction for misappropriating public funds, sentencing her to a fine of €100,000, a commuted prison sentence, and electronic tagging.
However, it reduced the original five-year ban on holding office, allowing her to stand in the next presidential election.
Le Pen initially faced a dilemma: campaign while under curfew with an ankle monitor, or step aside for her protégé, Jordan Bardella.
She chose to run, vowing to appeal to France's highest court to avoid wearing the tag.
Her decision mirrors a broader populist trend.
In the UK, Nigel Farage similarly framed a parliamentary investigation into his finances as a "people versus the establishment" battle.
Both leaders weaponize democratic institutions to rally their bases.
Le Pen's candidacy poses a greater risk than Bardella's.
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She is a seasoned campaigner, ruthless in her opposition to democratic institutions, and more belligerent toward the EU.
Her close ties to Russia add another layer of concern.
The verdict also leaves Bardella's future uncertain.
Will he accept a potential role as prime minister under Le Pen, or will the party face a succession battle?
A Fragmented Opposition
Le Pen's path to the Élysée is clearer than ever. The left remains divided, and the mainstream right has failed to unite behind a credible candidate.
Infighting among political parties, particularly around radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has undermined any orderly challenge.
In 2017 and 2022, Le Pen lost to Emmanuel Macron, but the margin narrowed.
After a decade of Macron's presidency, Russian disinformation, and a polarized public, she is closer to victory than ever.
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Her defeat depends on whether a capable candidate can emerge to face her in the second round.
