Greenland's melting ice sheet, combined with rising atmospheric temperatures, could weaken a key Atlantic Ocean current system by as much as 80 percent, according to a new study published July 3, 2026.
The research, led by an international team using advanced climate models, focuses on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
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This system plays a vital role in regulating global climate.
The study found that atmospheric warming alone accounts for a 60 percent reduction in AMOC strength. Greenland's freshwater influx adds an additional 20 percent decline.
An 80 percent slowdown would have severe consequences.
It could drastically disrupt agriculture in Western Europe due to extreme rainfall reductions, cause harsh winter conditions, and alter monsoon patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
Potential for Recovery
However, the researchers discovered that the system might recover by the year 2400 if global atmospheric carbon dioxide levels decrease by 1 percent annually starting from 2250.
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“We found that the combined CO2- and meltwater-induced AMOC weakening in our model was neither abrupt (with respect to external forcing) nor irreversible (on centennial timescales), characteristics often associated with climate tipping points,” the team explained in their paper.
The scientists caution that their findings rely on a single model configuration. They stress the need for further validation across different climate frameworks.
Future studies should also examine whether these overturning changes hold up in high-resolution ocean models that account for mesoscale eddies.
Additionally, the current model does not fully incorporate the impacts of melting ice from Antarctica.
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“Given that the uncertainties regarding the impact of Antarctic meltwater on the AMOC are considerable, simulations assessing the concurrent impacts of Greenland and Antarctic meltwater on the AMOC in long-term scenarios are needed in the future,” the authors noted.
