But for full autonomy, he argues, “weak sensing just leads to a safety curve that flattens out way too early.”
Waymo has logged 220 million rider-only miles, while Tesla reports 380,000 driverless miles.
Dolgov described autonomy as an “exponential ladder of nines,” where each additional nine of reliability requires roughly ten times more work than the last.
A system that works 99% of the time might look impressive in a demonstration, but at scale it could produce hundreds or thousands of crashes.
Tesla may still prove its critics wrong. Sometimes a simpler solution is the best one.
But Waymo's argument is becoming harder to ignore.
The technology that produces the best early demo may not be the one capable of delivering truly driverless safety.
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Only time will tell.
