New Zealand established a dominant 204-run second-innings lead over England on June 27, 2026, putting themselves in a strong position to secure the series during the third Test at Trent Bridge.
England collapsed from their overnight score of 223-2 to 354 all out, handing the tourists an 84-run first-innings advantage.
Although Jofra Archer dismissed Kiwi openers Tom Latham and Devon Conway cheaply, an unbeaten 60 from Rachin Ravindra and 26 from Daryl Mitchell guided New Zealand to 120-3 at stumps.
Broad Analyzes England's Challenge
Former England bowler Stuart Broad analyzed the match situation on Sky Sports, noting that the tourists are firmly in control of the deciding match.
"New Zealand have got themselves in a pretty strong position," said Broad.
Broad suggested that the English team must focus on survival and aggressive run-scoring if they hope to chase down the target on the shifting surface.
"If I'm in the England changing room, I'm thinking 'okay there's probably 10 deliveries in this surface that will get us out, but we'll have to score the runs quickly to make sure those 10 balls don't come our way'," he said.
The pundit emphasized that containing the Black Caps below a certain threshold remains a difficult challenge for the home side.
"I think England need it to be in and around 300, or under 300, which is a tall ask from here," said Broad.
The early breakthroughs by the English bowling attack briefly shifted the momentum before the visitors consolidated their position.
"At that stage [51-3] it looked like England were getting themselves back into this game at a rate of knots," said Broad.
Broad concluded that New Zealand's current advantage allows them to dictate the pace of the upcoming fourth day.
"Now, with New Zealand leading by 204, they're in their changing room going 'look guys, we get another 160, 170 with these final seven wickets, we can put this game to bed'," he said.
The commentator also recalled previous successful chases at the venue, such as a 299-run target achieved against New Zealand four years ago under Ben Stokes.
"You think about those famous chases - here, Headingley [358 against Australia in 2019], Edgbaston [378 against India in 2022] - none of them had this variance of bounce, but the England mindset will be that 'we can get these runs'," said Broad.
He noted that the rapid outfield conditions at Trent Bridge could benefit the batsmen if the opposing bowlers falter.
"We know Trent Bridge is a famous white-ball ground as well, where there's been a lot of high ODI scores and a rapid outfield," said Broad.
Broad credited the tactical performance of the visitors' bowling attack on the third day.
"New Zealand bowled very well today.
They didn't bowl so well yesterday afternoon, so you just have to hope that a relatively inexperienced bowling line-up turns up and you can score runs," he said.
He reminded viewers that England's primary focus must remain on taking the remaining wickets before calculating the final run chase.
"Ultimately, England still need seven New Zealand wickets.
They've still got quite a big job to do with the ball, and there's no real point at looking at what you can chase until you get those wickets," said Broad.
Woakes Emphasizes Early Wickets
Former England pace bowler Chris Woakes echoed the need for immediate breakthroughs while speaking on Sky Sports.
"England will want early wickets, absolutely," said Woakes.
Woakes referenced past historical encounters at Trent Bridge, including Jonny Bairstow's explosive chase in 2022, as a psychological factor.
"There'll be just a few scars in the New Zealand team from what happened here with that big chase from Jonny Bairstow back in 2022," said Woakes.
However, he observed that the pitch conditions have altered significantly over the course of the ongoing match.
"I think this is a bit of a different pitch. It's offered a little bit more, especially in the last couple of days.
I can't see it being that easy of a chase," said Woakes.
Despite the challenges, Woakes warned against dismissing England's capabilities under leadership.
"But always be wary of what an England team with Ben Stokes at the helm can do in that fourth innings," said Woakes.
He added that New Zealand would try to maximize their advantage to set an unattainable target.
"[New Zealand] still want to capitalise, and make this a big lead to make sure England are going to have to chase a big score," said Woakes.
Woakes concluded that while a massive target would be ideal for the tourists, it remains a difficult milestone to reach.
"Ideally, from New Zealand's point of view, you want 400. But that looks unlikely," said Woakes.
The three-match series is currently tied, following an English victory by 115 runs at Lord's and a New Zealand win by 253 runs at The Kia Oval, with the final match scheduled to conclude on June 29.
