Oman's Strategic Ambiguity
Oman, often recognized as an intermediary between Western nations and Tehran, faces geopolitical pressure from the United States, which strongly opposes any monetary levies on international shipping lines inside the strait.
"You have a regional power, such as Iran, and then you have a global power, the U. S.
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, putting pressure on Oman," Dania Thafer, executive director of Gulf International Forum, told CNBC.
The policy research institution noted that Omani authorities are utilizing a cautious approach to preserve relations with both competing global powers.
"So, they're trying to use a degree of strategic ambiguity to try to stay out of the conflict as much as possible and not undermine these very strong players," Thafer said.
International oil and energy markets continue to watch the negotiations closely, as changes to governance rules could alter global shipping costs and insurance premiums without requiring a direct military incident.
"Markets tend to price disruption risk but pay less attention to governance risk.
That creates a blind spot," Neil Quilliam, Middle East specialist at Chatham House, wrote in an email to CNBC.
Analysts suggest that Omani diplomats are balanced between the legal limits of transit passage laws and the economic incentives of co-signing a joint regional fee structure.
"As a result, we've seen Omani diplomats tack back and forth between insisting no toll will be charged, and suggesting that ships might be asked to pay a fee which will be called something other than a toll," Andrew Leber, non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Program, wrote in an email to CNBC.
Independent experts believe Oman will maintain its diplomatic posture until the pricing framework causes an outright policy rift with neighboring Arab states or Washington.
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"It is highly likely that Oman continues to co-sign some kind of Iranian service-fee plan or put a gentler spin on it until that brings it into direct conflict with its Arab neighbors or the United States," Leber wrote.
